In the first half of 2014, the economic operation of CNC machine tool equipment industry generally showed a low level and stabilized. While from the second quarter government will intensify policy of steady growth and response to the economic downturn, but demand structural changes in the domestic market and international market demand slow recovery, imports increased competition, serious lack of liquidity and financial conditions worsen the comprehensive effect of the multiple adverse factors such as for a long time, enterprise management difficulties and potential risks, CNC machine tool website industry operating pressure is still very big.
First, the growth rate of the whole industry declined
According to the economic operation data of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to June 2014, the income of the main business of metal-working machine tools increased by 8.7%, metal-cutting machine tools by 6.4% and metal-forming machine tools by 13.3% year-on-year. That was a change of -0.5, -1.3 and 1 percentage point, respectively, compared with the first quarter.
The statistical data of the key contact network of the Machine Tool Association also shows that the product sales revenue of all enterprises from January to June in 2014 decreased by 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sales revenue of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 7.7%; The sales revenue of metal forming machine NC machine tool modified bed increased by 4.3%.
Second, the whole industry operating quality decline
1. The financial situation is not optimistic
According to the economic operation data from January to June 2014 calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit margin of the main business, the turnover rate of accounts receivable and the asset-liability ratio of the whole industry are 5.5%, 4.6 and 54.1% respectively. The above three indexes of metal cutting machine tools are 3%, 2.7 and 62.6% respectively. The above three indexes of metal-forming machine tools are 5.8%, 4.2 and 54.3% respectively.
From the above data, the industry's main business profit margin is lower than the one-year loan interest rate, Jincut machine tool industry is even lower than the one-year time deposit interest rate, reflecting a serious decline in industry profitability. Accounts receivable turnover for the industry-wide, metal-cutting machine tool and metal-forming machine tool segments decreased 0.2, 0.2 and remained flat, respectively, compared with the same period last year, reflecting weaker liquidity. Asset-liability ratio close to and more than 60%, CNC machine tool factory financial risk increased.
2. Losses continue and the situation is grim
According to the economic data of National Bureau of Statistics from January to June 2014, the loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 13.8%, among which the loss-making enterprises owned by the state accounted for 41.8%. Among the eight sub-industries, the biggest loss-makers were metal-cutting machine tools, accounting for 24.7 percent of the total, including 50.8 percent for state-owned enterprises.
From January to June 2014, the loss-making enterprises in the key contact network of the Machine Tool Association accounted for 38%, including 45.5 percent for gold cutting machine tools and 18.2 percent for forming machine tools. That's up 2.3 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively, from the previous month.
3. Steady Export Growth According to customs statistics, from January to June 2014, the export amount of machine tool commodities was $5.28 billion, 18.5% more than last year, and 7.4 percent more than the same period last year. In the context of the sluggish demand in the domestic market and the decline in enterprise production and operation, the export showed a steady growth in the first half of 2014. Exploiting overseas markets and strengthening exports are becoming an important breakthrough in resolving excess capacity and realizing industrial transformation and upgrading.
In terms of export structure, the <i class="chrome-extension-mutihighlight chrome-extension-mutihighlight-style-1">top</i> three were cutting tools (US $1.24 billion), abrasive tools (US $1.04 billion) and metal-cutting machine tools (US $970 million), accounting for 23.5%, 19.7% and 18.4% of the total export value, respectively.
4. Market demand stabilized
Due to the slowdown of China's economic growth and the transformation of its development mode, China's machine tool consumption market and industry are also undergoing profound structural adjustment. Market changes characterized by a significant reduction in total volume and accelerated structural upgrading are becoming increasingly obvious. As China's economic development enters the new normal, the change in the demand of machine tool consumption market will also tend to be stable.
1. The total amount of orders decreased and the low level stabilized
According to the statistics of key network orders of Machine Tool Association from January to June 2014, the new orders of all enterprises decreased by 3.3% compared with the same period last year, and the orders in hand decreased by 3.3%. Among them, new orders for metal-cutting machine tools decreased by 4.3% year on year, and in hand orders decreased by 3.2% year on year. New orders for metal-forming machine tools fell 8.4 per cent year on year, while orders on hand fell 5.1 per cent.
2. Imports turned from negative to positive, and medium - and high-end demand picked up
In the first six months of 2014, the total import volume was US $8.15 billion, an increase of 0.28% year-on-year. Compared with the import year-on-year data in 2013 (-20.2%), there is an obvious recovery. From May, the import of machine tools showed year-on-year and month-on-month growth for two consecutive months. Under the combined impact of the appreciation of RMB and the measures taken by the government to stabilize growth and promote foreign trade, it is expected that imports will show a carry-over trend in the second half of the year and lead to a positive growth of imports for the whole year. Since the import situation reflects the demand of the domestic high-end market, the recent trend of import indicates that the demand of the domestic high-end market is picking up.
V. Forecasts and Suggestions for the Second Half Year
Through the analysis of the economic operation and import and export data of the industry from January to June 2014, it is expected that the operation of the machine tool industry will be stable from low to low in the whole year. Based on the gradual stabilization of the production of metalworking machine tools and the obvious recovery of imports, it is expected that China's machine tool consumption market will continue to maintain its position in the world in 2014, but the scale will decline.
In order to promote the smooth operation of the industry, achieve the goal of transformation and upgrading, and cope with adverse factors and downward pressure, it is suggested to increase the support for enterprises' export and use the international market to reduce excess capacity. Further lower the threshold of export credit, clear up unreasonable charges, increase the support for the development of overseas markets and exhibition promotion, and increase the scope and intensity of export goods rebate for the purpose of balancing the appreciation of exchange rate; We will implement policies to support the real economy in the financial sector, and solve the problem of capital constraints caused by banks and other financial institutions withdrawing, postponing or suspending loans from industrial enterprises. Necessary financial support shall be given to the enterprises in line with the direction of industrial restructuring and the objectives of transformation and upgrading; In the link of using national financial funds for investment, we should give more consideration to the support of domestic independent brand products, so as to create a fair and reasonable environment for industrial development.
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